Forrester Responds, Questions Press Credibility

Josh Bernoff, the author of the Forrester Research report which Orlowski bandied about as a reason to call iTunes sales 'collapsing' has responded. He writes:

A UK outfit called The Register and Bloomberg decided to dive in and highlight one finding of the report -- that iTunes sales had dropped in the first six months of this year. We got treated to wonderful headlines about iTunes sales "collapsing" and "dropping" and "plummeting" and so on. Now for the record, iTunes sales are not collapsing. Our credit card transaction data shows a real drop between the January post-holiday peak and the rest of the year, but with the number of transactions we counted it's simply not possible to draw this conclusion . . . as we pointed out in the report. But that point was just too subtle to get into these articles.

Bernoff continues, citing the drop in Apple's stock after the announcement:

Now, you can't unring the bell. But I will try to focus you on the truth here, which is this: iTunes sales are leveling off, the Journal did an article about it last Friday with data from Soundscan. Apple is not in trouble -- it makes its money mostly from iPods, and iTunes is just a way to make that experience better. It's the music industry that has to worry, since the $1 billion a year or so from iTunes, globally, doesn't nearly make up for even the drop in CD sales in the US, which are now down $2.5 billion from where they were.

What do we learn for this incident. First, Orlowski can't be trusted to read analysts reports. Second, neither can many others in the media who didn't understand that the Forrester Research show that though there was a drop in transactions this doesn't mean the iTS is going to poof away.

Somehow I have a feeling Orlowski spent more time thinking about synonyms for falling sales than actually reading the report.

Link

Macalope, Funny and Accurate

The Macalope, one of the most incisive and funny Mac blogs out there, has its own take on the results of the Forrester analysis (surely on its way to a brouhaha with Slashdot involved).

Link

Schaddenfreude

C|Net was initially very positive about the Zune's wireless feature, and yet I think this article captures perfectly why the feature is effectively meaningless as a feature for the Zune; the iPod is, of course, a different story. The author wanders the San Francisco streets, going from coffee shop to BART cars hunting for a fellow Zune-user. (a 'Zunie' perhaps?). He finally finds some sucess:

This time, I did not see the familiar rejection notice. Was I dreaming? Nearby: "I am a Lengend." There was another Zune. "I should send them a song," I thought. But what? I quickly settled on R.E.M's "Begin the Begin." "Lost connection," my Zune reported.

The author finds his Zunemate, but I think the point has been made, with Microsoft's target goal of 1 Million Zunes by June 2007, the Zune lacks the population density. The iPod, however, has the numbers to make this an interesting feature, but for the Zune you lose two hours of battery life for a feature that's all about filling out a features list rather than actually adding something fun to your daily life.

Link

Register's Orlowski Reads Forrester Research, Flips Out

Originally reported by the shrill Andrew Orlowski at the Register, Forrester Research's analysis of nearly 2 million credit and debit card transactions from April 2004 to June 2006 found several interesting things:

• 3% of online households made an iTunes purchase in the past year.


• Apple's iTunes proves that $0.99 micropayments for digital music can lead to substantial revenue.


• Buyers spent an average of $35 at iTunes over the past year.


• With half of all transactions costing $3 or less, though, transaction fees threaten to make iTunes unprofitable.


• Since the introduction of the iTunes Music Store, Apple has been steadily selling just 20 iTunes tracks for each iPod sold, suggesting that even at $0.99, most consumers still aren't sold on the value of digital music.


• Monthly iTunes Revenue Increased Steadily In 2004 And 2005.


• More Than 3% Of Online Households Bought iTunes In The Past Year.
• 
  
• Most Households Bought iTunes On Three Or Fewer Occasions.


• Apple Sells 20 iTunes Per iPod Shipped.

Now, Orlowski uses this research as a reason to proclaim that "iTunes sales are collapsing" and then moves on to blame DRM for the loss, ending his article with his pet idea that a "blanket license" may be the salve for the music industry.
However, I disagree.
Forrester tracked only credit and debit card transactions, leaving out the available PayPal accounts and gift cards. How much this changes their figures I don't know, but it seems important to include these to account for more accurate sales numbers. Furthermore, while Orlowski sees a 'collapse' as sales dropped after the holiday season, I see a seasonal variation and therefore little cause for his alarm. While most people aren't using the iTS to fill their iPods, they're still buying the little devices in huge numbers and therefore Apple's plan to use the iTS as a loss-leader to sell iPods is still working.

The most interesting question is what would happen without DRM? With eMusic the second-place winner in the digital download market, there does seem to be a market for unteathered music, even in comparison to Apple's 'velvet lock.' The failure of PlaysForSure shows that the hardware, more than the stores, makes the real difference and Apple understands this market far better than anyone else.

Jimmy Santiago Baca

I stumbled across one of Jimmy Santiago Baca's poems during my freshman year of college. I'm not sure if the poem came to me because of an English teacher, a certain textbook, or just happenstance, but it surprised me, it engaged me. Suddenly, I began to understand poetry, the use of words and rythym and the juxtapositions that make up modern poetry. It impressed me, this simple poem.
The poem was Green Chile, and it's sensual description of Baca's grandmother making green chile con carne is just incredible.

From the poem:

A well-dressed gentleman at the door
my grandmother takes sensuously in her hand,
rubbing its firm glossed sides,
caressing the oily rubbery serpent,
with mouth -watering fulfillment,
fondling its curves with gentle fingers.
Its bearing magnificent and taut
as flanks of a tiger in mid-leap,
she thrusts her blade into
and cuts it open, with lust
on her hot mouth, sweating over the stove,
bandanna round her forehead,
mysterious passion on her face
as she serves me green chile con carne
between soft warm leaves of corn tortillas,
with beans and rice–her sacrifice
to her little prince.

Tonight, I had an opportunity to hear Mr. Baca read his poems at the last reading of the University of Arizona's Poetry Center, and he continues to be a fantastic poet and writer, grounded in the dark reality of modern life and yet able to describe the ineffable as well.

The Poetry Center is a fantastic place for anyone interested in literature and poetry. Their collection is impressive and their project to record poets for future students is a worthy task. I've had the opportunity to volunteer and helped the center build a small video-editing system.

For Christmas morning, How to Contact iTunes Customer Service

Slate's Tim Noah has, yet again, discovered the customer service number for iTunes. It's not the easiest thing to do, but if you might reach an actual person, if you follow his instructions:

1. Telephone the following number: 800-275-2273. This is the Apple Care Service and Support Line.
2. When you hear the recorded greeting, enter 70. The recording will very likely reject that entry at first. If so, try again.
3. When you're prompted to say the product that you need tech support for, say "iTunes."
4. When you're prompted to say what type of computer you're using, say "a Windows machine" or "Macintosh."
5. When you're prompted to say whether you're calling on behalf of a school, answer "yes" or "no."
6. This will get you a live person. Please note: You will need to state the serial number of your iPod before you can proceed.

Link.

If you're feeling less than patient, you can also go here and hunt for the answer on your own.

The Nike+ iPod "Security Flaw" and Journalists

KING5 News: UW Researchers Describe Nike+iPod Issues

Journalists, especially local television newscasters, seem to take great relish in scaring their viewers. Combine this with a superficial understanding of technology and we get this story from Seattle's KING5 news.

How to Make Much Over a Technological Nothing:

Step 1: Make sure to include a widely-popular consumer good.
Step 2: Use words like 'electronically' that way viewers immediately think something special is happening.
Step 3: Add in plucky-sounding underdogs, like UW grad students.
Step 2: Use hyperbole like 'innocent users' and 'nightmare scenarios.' Oh, and 'disturbing.'
Step 3: Show a demonstration which oversimplifies the actual problems with the scenario. For instance, to really track someone you'd need a network of devices strung out every 60-feet. If you just wanted to know if your target was home, you could use dozens of other methods to do the same thing, including casing their house. And, note if the stalker is standing there holding a laptop, couldn't he just stalk the person from about 60-feet away?
Step 4: Ignore the reality and problem of RFID devices, including RFID-enabled credit cards, for this goofy story.
Step 5: End with something like 'we contacted the company, but haven't received a response' to ensure that the story sounds secretive and vagely malevolent.

The Secret Ingredient

The Zune is the most recent example of what other companies, and even some reviewers, don't understand about the iPod and its unrivaled success. It's not just the pretty hardware or cool commercials, it's that Apple, more than anyone else, understands that complexity for the sake of complexity is a terrible thing for consumers.
When you buy a product you don't want a manual as thick as a copy of Gone With the Wind, or a system so complex it requires an engineering degree and a particular ear for acronyms to make it work. What consumers want is a device that does what it's designed to do with a minimum of fuss.
Apple understands this. They may not always be successful in making this a reality, but with the iPod they've made a sincere attempt to make a great technology.

C|Net has an article penned by their executive editor of commentary about this very issue. Titled "Why It's Hard Not to be a Grinch," the article describes the author's frustration with a SanDisk Sansa m240:

I won't bore you with the details of the software hell I suffered, but there were any number of minor technical questions the company leaves customers to figure out on their own. Lincoln's Gettysburg Address is longer than the tiny booklet of "technical documentation" that came with the unit. Three pages of instruction–-in big type-–in three different languages just didn't do it. So my frustration grew as the afternoon lengthened into the late evening and still I was left trying to understand the particular mindset of the genius who designed the music player's interface.

The iPod just works, and that's why is currently the king of the Mp3-player market. The sooner SanDisk, Microsoft, and others figure this out, the more meaning all those extras like WiFi-sharing will have.

Link.

Apple, Political Ad Mashup

Salon's Video Dog has a mash-up of the 'Hi, I'm a Mac' ads with a little political subtext.

It's funny, laugh.

Link

Accumulated Wisdom:

And, occassionally, I run into a great quote that I'd like to remember.
Here are two:

Laws do not persuade just because they threaten. — Seneca

All professions are conspiracies against the common folk. — George Bernard Shaw

Nintendo and Third-Place

Even as Nintendo has effectively conceded first-place sales to Microsoft and Sony, the company is actually making more money than ever, according to this New Yorker piece:

The point is that business is not a sporting event. Victory for one company doesn’t mean defeat for everyone else. Markets today are so big—the global video-game market is now close to thirty billion dollars—that companies can profit even when they’re not on top, as long as they aren’t desperately trying to get there. The key is to play to your strengths while recognizing your limitations. Nintendo knew that it could not compete with Microsoft and Sony in the quest to build the ultimate home-entertainment device. So it decided, with the Wii, to play a different game entirely. Some pundits are now speculating, ironically, that the simplicity of the Wii may make it a huge hit.

Nintendo's strategy with the Wii, focusing on game-play rather than graphics and simplicity rather than owning the home entertainment sphere, may make the company ultimately more successful than either of their competitors.

Link. Hat tip to DaringFireball.

Also, Amazon link to Nintendo's Wii just in case you were thinking of buying one.

I Swear, The Last Zune Post

BusinessWeek has a new fluff piece on the Zune team at Microsoft. Titled The Soul Of A New Microsoft, the article focuses on J Allard, the driven leader behind the XBox and the Zune.

Here's the thing, Microsoft doesn't need to find their 'un-Vista' they need to stop trying to seize every possible market with half-baked attempts and hope that their name and marketing muscles save, what would otherwise be, nothing but a memory. In creating the Zune, Microsoft created yet another buggy product with the hope that it will get better while convincing some sucker to pay for the development of the next version.

Microsoft didn't build the Zune, they bought the hardware from Toshiba. Microsoft didn't build the model, they watched Apple and then created a wonky version of iTunes, except that they created the obviously deceptive Zune Marketplace which uses points rather than actual money.

A song on the Zune Marketplace costs 79 points, but you can't just buy one song, you have to give Microsoft a $5.00 credit, meaning unless you buy hundreds of songs, you will always leave something in Microsoft's hands. Surely, some dullard will think the Zune Marketplace is cheaper than iTunes without noticing he's spent the same amount of money while giving Microsoft a micro-loan.

So, crappy product, crappy software, and a points system that screws you a penny at a time.


Update: I also ran into Andy Ihnatko's review in the Chicago Sun-Times and his explanation for the Zune Marketplace's goofy points system makes sense. They want you to buy points in $5.00 increments to save money on credit-card processing fees.

What I'm Reading:

It was my dad's copy of Martian Chronicles that did it. The musty little paperback, stained by the acidic paper and smelling of dust, so amazed me that I've loved science-fiction ever since.

With that in mind I've included two short story collections:
Future Primitive: The New Ecotopias. Edited by Kim Stanley Robinson, this collection of short stories includes the outstanding "Bears Discover Fire" by Terry Bisson.

The Year's Best Science Fiction Twenty-third Annual Collection (Year's Best Science Fiction) Another collection of science-fiction stories, this one includes Alastair Reynolds' "Spy in Europa" and my favorite "Timequakes" by David Gerrold.

I'm also continuing to read and try to understand poetry, and thus I have Camille Paglia's Break, Blow, Burn: Camille Paglia Reads Forty-three of the World's Best Poems

'Cause I Can't Leave it Alone

According to Engadget, the Zune is just a repackaged Toshiba 1089 with fun Microsoft software and a brand-new DRM-scheme.

Link

Tesla Roadster

Here's proof that environmental technology doesn't have to be a hippy's VW bus converted to run diesel, rather it can be sleek, fast, and bright red.

Slate's Paul Boutin gushes about the Tesla Roadster, an electric car that is not only environmentally friendly, but blast to drive.

From the article:

The Tesla Roadster won't hit the streets until next year. If you see one on the street, then, you should ask for a ride. Even from the passenger seat, the car feels impossibly stronger, faster, and safer than it should be. The trick is Tesla's torque curve—the arc of the motor's strength as it revs from a standstill to top speed. Compared to gasoline-engined cars, the Roadster's torque curve feels—and is—impossible. That's because the Tesla's motor is electric.

The real message from the Tesla Roadster is simple, Detroit's Big-3 needs to wake the hell up and start innovating rather than making yet another SUV or debuting a retro-designed Dodge Dart.

Update: Tesla Motors, the maker of the Tesla Roadster, has a blog.

The Zune, It Still Sucks...

Is there anyone out there who likes the Zune? Besides of course the astroturfing of Zunescene? Also, any website that uses "Dude, you're getting a..." without the ironic detachment necessary to use such a dumb catch-phrase is just a tad pathetic.

David Galbraith writes one of the most scathing, and I think, insightful descriptions of the problem with the Zune and Microsoft.

And, I learned a new word thanks to Galbraith, skeuomorph.


Link. Thanks to DaringFireball for this one.

The Zune, It Sucks: A Zune Review Round-Up

I'm not exactly unbiased when it comes to the Zune, first I love my iPod, the 30GB iPod Video I snagged earlier in the year, and second, Microsoft bugs me, but the Zune is a bad deal.

In yet another needy attempt to seize a market, Microsoft tries and fails to unseat the iPod with the new Zune, and it's proving to be one of the biggest flops of the year. Although Microsoft keeps repeating their mantra that the Zune is just a start, anyone who's been paying attention to the Mp3-player market should remember that this is Round 2.

Let's start with Engadget's two reviews, the first of which was unpacking and installation, and let's just say things didn't go well. In fact, things went so badly that the often even-handed Engadget titled the article "Installing the Zune Sucked." After running a gauntlet of installation errors and buggy user-interfaces, Engadget finally got the device to work.

They followed this with a full review, which includes this gem:

Microsoft really wanted to convince everybody that this time they'd changed, this time they were starting from the ground up, working for the consumer, working for the artist. Well, no one's buying that story anymore.

Walter Mossberg of the Wall Street Journal also reviewed the Zune, he writes:

But, this first Zune has too many compromises and missing features to be as good a choice as the iPod for most users. The hardware feels rushed and incomplete.

And, David Pogue of the New York Times gives the wireless sharing a big 'meh', writing:

What's really nuts is that the restrictions even stomp on your own musical creations. Microsoft's literature suggests that if you have a struggling rock band, you could ''put your demo recordings on your Zune'' and ''when you're out in public, you can send the songs to your friends.'' What it doesn't say: ''And then three days later, just when buzz about your band is beginning to build, your songs disappear from everyone's Zunes, making you look like an idiot.''

Pogue ends with:

Competition is good and all. But what, exactly, is the point of the Zune? It seems like an awful lot of duplication -- in a bigger, heavier form with fewer features -- just to indulge Microsoft's ''we want some o' that'' envy. Wireless sharing is the one big new idea -- and if the public seems to respond, Apple could always add that to the iPod.

Then again, this is all standard Microsoft procedure. Version 1.0 of Microsoft Anything is stripped-down and derivative, but it's followed by several years of slow but relentless refinement and marketing. Already, Microsoft says that new Zune features, models and accessories are in the pipeline.

So, instead of buying a 30GB iPod, you can tie yourself to Microsoft's new DRM-scheme, have fewer song choices, abandon podcasts, and have a larger, heavier, and absolutely buggy device. And you can help Microsoft beta test their new product for free.

Oh, the joy!

Lorem Ipsum

If you've ever paid any attention to typesetting or to Apple's iLife applications, especially iWeb and iWork you've seen this random chunk of Latin as dummy text. Having studied Latin for one painful summer, I was confused as to why I could never translate the text. That's because it's randomized and offer new words are added in as a joke. But, there's even more to the story.

Turns out, this text has a lot more history that I thought. According to lipsum.com, the text was from a copy of Cicero's de Finibus Bonorum et Malorum (The Extremes of Good and Evil) written around 45 BC, and was first used in print by a 16th century printer.

What's amazing is not only how this tradition has survived for so long, but that it made the leap into digital printing.

Polysyllabic Spree

Several months ago, I bought a copy of Nick Hornby's Polysyllabic Spree, a great compilation of his "Stuff I've Been Reading" column from the Believer. And, frankly I love the idea of writing down my own reading so much that I'm going to steal it wholesale.

Furthermore, since Amazon offers referral links and I can make a buck or two from this, I'm going to add these here as well, so anyone can peruse and even maybe buy one of the books I've decided to read and review.

Below, are two links, the first does directly to the McSweeney's Store for a copy of Polysyllabic Spree and the second goes to Amazon. Take your pick.


Link to McSweeney's Store.

Link to Amazon

Cell-phone cameras

I've called them effectively worthless at least once, but there is something to be said for a camera that's always around and capable of capturing the wonderful things one can stumble on.

So, I offer this from Lifehacker, How To Take Better Camera-phone pictures.

Steve Jobs has a Favorite Word

We all have our verbal tics. Whether it's the Canadian 'eh, the Valley Girl's like, or Keanu Reeve's use of the word Whoa, there's just certain phrases that flow unheeded into our words. Steve Jobs, Apple's CEO, is no different and someone put together a great little mashup. Let's see if you can guess what his verbal tic is.


Link. Via Boingboing.

Batten the Hatches, Secure the Doors, Vista is Coming

According to ZDNet, Windows Vista, the long-delayed upgrade to the Windows OS, will be released January 30, 2007. Microsoft has announced a November 30 press conference to introduce the new OS along with Office 2007.

Originally announced in 2003, Vista will replace the venerable Windows XP, which was introduced in 2001. This marks an extraordinary gap between major Operating System releases and has often been compared to Apple's Mac OS X, which has been upgraded four times in the same time period.

Apple has already announced the next version of OS X, called Leopard, and is expected to release the software during MacWorld San Francisco 2007, which opens with Steve Jobs' keynote on January 9.

George Ou's Apple Bashing Ignores Real Problems

Also, while George Ou was getting fantastically excited about the announcement of a 'zero-day' exploit for old Airport cards, Microsoft announced a 'zero-day' exploit for Microsoft's Internet Explorer 6 and 7.

While the Apple exploit was limited to wireless cards produced previous to 2003 and required the card to be in active scanning mode, not to mention the attacker must within wireless range, this new Microsoft flaw allows for remote exploits over the internet.

So, George, which vulnerability should get the most press? An Airport exploit for older Macs. Or a exploit for a brand-new Microsoft product?

Cool Tip for iTunes: Terminal Hack

I like the iTunes Store, but I don't want my music collection to be inextricably linked to it, especially considering only about 5% of it comes from the store, so when Apple added the grey arrows that link directly to the iTunes Music Store with iTunes 4.5 I immediately disabled them.



iTunes 7.0 made them less noticable, allowing them to show only on the currently playing song, but I was still bothered by them.

But, this neat little hack makes them useful. Rather than linking to the iTunes Store, you can use the link as another way to browse your own collection. However, hitting option along with the link goes back to the old behavior. To make this work, Open Terminal and type:

defaults write com.apple.iTunes invertStoreLinks -bool YES.

And if for some reason this doesn't work for you, you can change it back by putting NO instead of YES.

Tyger, Tyger Burning Bright

William Blake's "The Tyger" was the first poem I really 'got.' The combination of Blake's accessible meter and the dense lyric language worked, especially the beginning stanza, which is repeated at the end:

Tyger!Tyger! burning bright /
in the forests of the night /
What immortal hand or eye /
dye frame thy fearful symmetry?

I mention this simply because I happened upon Tyger, a multimedia short made—according to Salon's Video Dog—for the British Council in Brazil's annual festival. Tyger uses Blake's poem for inspiration and the combination of puppetry and animation is incredibly imaginative (even the background music is good.) So check it out.

Link.

Prophetic Words

It may be a bit obvious, but there's something about W.B. Yeats' The Second Coming that rings truer today than it should.

Also, after watching Keith Olberman's outstanding and fiery oration on the Bush administration from September 25, I went and found the rest of the Abraham Lincoln's speech he references:

Is it doubted, then, that the plan I propose, if adopted, would shorten the war, and thus lessen its expenditure of money and of blood? Is it doubted that it would restore the national authority and national prosperity, and perpetuate both indefinitely? Is it doubted that we here--Congress and Executive--can secure its adoption? Will not the good people respond to a united, and earnest appeal from us? Can we, can they, by any other means, so certainly, or so speedily, assure these vital objects? We can succeed only by concert. It is not "can any of us imagine better?" but, "can we all do better?" The dogmas of the quiet past, are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise -- with the occasion. As our case is new, so we must think anew, and act anew. We must disenthrall ourselves, and then we shall save our country.
Fellow-citizens, we cannot escape history. We of this Congress and this administration, will be remembered in spite of ourselves. No personal significance, or insignificance, can spare one or another of us. The fiery trial through which we pass, will light us down, in honor or dishonor, to the latest generation. We say we are for the Union. The world will not forget that we say this. We know how to save the Union. The world knows we do know how to save it. We -- even we here -- hold the power, and bear the responsibility. In giving freedom to the slave, we assure freedom to the free -- honorable alike in what we give, and what we preserve. We shall nobly save, or meanly lose, the last best hope of earth. Other means may succeed; this could not fail. The way is plain, peaceful, generous, just -- a way which, if followed, the world will forever applaud, and God must forever bless.
- Abraham Lincoln, Annual Remarks to Congress, December 1, 1862.

Swearing in Latin

I can't believe I never noticed this before, but Wikipedia has an entry on swearing in Latin. Useful? No. Fun, in an intellectual sort of way? Yes!

A big nod to Jason Kottke for finding this one.


Link.

Keep Trying Scoble, You're Bound to Think of Something

Microsoft gets so much grief for copying, I think, because they're so blatant and bad at it. They're like Gus Van Sant remaking Hitchcock’s Psycho: the camera angles are the same, but the spirit is dead. Meanwhile, Apple takes ideas and makes them (like 3M!) better, reinventing the idea with their own particular style.
Robert Scoble thinks this is unfair. Frankly, if I were a former Microsoft blogger with his insight into the company I'd probably feel the same way. Often times Microsoft has taken an Apple idea and made a cardboard copy, but Apple's not exactly the innocent waif either, fast user switching being a great example.
However, I think his comparison between the Xbox 360 and the upcoming "iTV" to be ill conceived. The Xbox is a computer, thinner than normal, but nonetheless inside the case is everything you would expect from a gaming machine. However, iTV is different, it's a discrete device that ties into ability the rest of the network should already have. The iTV has more in common with a Sonos and is really an evolution of Apple's Airport Express.
The difference is subtle, but important.

Microsoft is making another version of the MCE box: a complex system capable of a myriad of different tasks; Apple is making a toaster. A toaster that plays video.

[Update:] Apparently, Apple's been working on an idea similar to the iTV as early as the mid-90s; the device was the "Set Top Box." Microsoft gets a cookie for the XBox and the implementation, but I still think Scoble needs a better example than this one.

Napster Begs for Mercy

Already widely reported but fun in light of Orlowski's rambling about subscription services, Napster is looking for a bail-out according to the NYTimes. (Tip to DaringFireball for the link.)

Apparently, BusinessWeek thinks Creative would be a great partner, because two guys who can't swim is always better than one.

Details Confound Register Writer

Andrew Orlowski’s latest article “The iPod’s Achilles Heel? It’s er [sic]…Readers Digest?” manages to be almost completely wrong about the growing business of digital music. Orlowski believes that the subscription model, already an abject failure despite the backing of Real, Sony, and Microsoft under the “PlaysForSure” label, will suddenly be resurrected by Microsoft’s Zune player. However, while this idea is interesting, Orlowski makes the grave mistake of using the success of eMusic as his support, and this is just plain wrong.

eMusic has been a surprise hit among digital music purveyors, second only to iTunes in sales. According to this USA Today article, eMusic accounts for 11% of the market, while Apple seizes nearly 70% (the rest is divvied up among perennial losers Napster, Real, and MSN Music; Sony’s Connect is hidden by a rounding error.) What’s most fascinating about eMusic’s success is not only do they cater to independent bands, but they have managed this success without DRM. And, this is very, very important detail that Orlowski has utterly ignored.

An eMusic customer pays $14.99 a month for 65 downloads for a “Plus” subscription or $19.99 for a “Premium” subscription. Once a song is downloaded it can be played on any device and burned innumerable times. This is completely different from the competing subscription services where songs are locked the minute the subscription ends, and extra charges are assessed to burn the song to a CD or move the file to a portable player.

This is a vital difference, users don’t want to rent their music, they want to own it, and any system that gives them this ability it going to do far better than any current subscription service. Really, eMusic is just a different way of charging for the same bits.

Orlowski also manages to be completely wrong about the economics of digital downloads, he writes:

“iTunes doesn't generate money for anyone except Apple. Broadband providers, PC manufacturers, insurance companies, and the battery-replacement services have all profited in some way from the iPod's success - but no one in the music value chain. Steve Jobs doesn't even leave crumbs on the table.”

That’s why the labels signed a new deal with Apple apparently, they like losing money.

Although, according to this Billboard article (PDF warning), the labels are actually taking 65 cents for every song, meaning that while Apple bears the costs of servers, bandwidth, and the staff necessary to maintain the iTunes site, the music labels merely have to hand over digital content. Really, it seems the labels are getting more than a fair deal, and I think it’s a good thing that not only does Apple and the music labels make money, but the success of the iPod/iTunes/iTunes Store triumvirate has create a micro-economy based on cases, accessories, and even batteries.

Lastly, although eMusic’s CEO David Pakman takes a cheap shot at the iPod, he should realize that the iPod’s massive sales help him as well, because eMusic’s songs work on the iPod just as easily as songs from the iTunes Store. After all, “a rising tide lifts all boats.” Consumers hunting for content can happen upon eMusic and use both services equally, grabbing the unusual from eMusic and that Top 40 ohrwrum from iTunes.

iTunes 7

Things to Like About iTunes 7:

• Cover Flow.
  
• Downloading Album Art
  
• Gapless Playback.
  
• The revamped sidebar, including the new icons, but especially the new broken-out categories for movies, TV shows, and podcasts.
  
• Gapless Playback. I know I already said it, but I love that I can listen to Kind of Blue and Delicate Sound of Thunder without the annoying pauses.

Something to Dislike:

• Cover Flow shows displays some albums using a single image, other albums have an image for each-and-every song. Somehow I’ve fixed this on a few albums, but I can’t figure out what I did.

An Inevitable and Necessary Post

September 11 is a bitter day, a sullen and grey ache. Politicians are propping up their image with their response to the anniversary, and I go to lunch with my wife, I send emails to friends, and I hope for better days.

Later that night, I notice the spot-lights spearing the sky, creating a nebulous glow in the clouds, and shafts of blue light that flicker with the fluttering of bats drawn by the moveable feast of insects in the light.

New iPod

I just ordered a refurbished iPod from Apple courtesy of Apple Gift Cards from my family.

Thanks guys.

My Darth Vader Pod is on the way.

Acolytes, Zealots, and Pedants

I can't put my finger on it, but sometime during the last year, the continuous debate over Mac vs. Windows ceased to be fun. Maybe I'm just a jaded flame-warrior, but now it just sucks. Everyone's got an opinion (including me) and everyone's got the data to support it, especially when they ignore data that disagrees.

The example that brought this up was from TUAW in a post by David Cartier. His post, titled Fuzzy Tactics Aren't Helping the Mac Community takes to task a 'Digged' blog post that compared the Total Cost of Ownership between Windows and OSX.

The original article by Daniel Eran tried to compare cost of upgrading OSX from 10.0 to 10.4 versus the cost of upgrading Windows from 2000 to XP SP2. An interesting idea, but ultimately pointless, because the numbers are hard to consider.
Just a few questions I'd ask: Do you count OEM versions of Windows? Do you count the 10.1 upgrade disc that people could buy? And, how in the hell did Thurrott get to $750 for upgrades to OSX? Did he count every version of OSX, including Leopard at $129?

The article tries to compare all the variations, and then adds in Anti-Virus and Geek Squad Support to the Windows total. Apparently, unhappy about his numbers, Eran decided to stack the deck.

This is unfair, and Cartier is right to call him on it. Both Eran and Thurrott have an agenda to serve and they're going to manipulating the numbers to suffice.

What does this mean for the average user? Jack squat. The average user didn't update from 10.1 through 10.4, they skipped updates. Or they waited for the next thing, or they used that time to buy a new computer. Users don't like to upgrade their OS, they like to leave it alone until they have to change. Many OSX users can still get by with Jaguar or Panther. Windows users are the same, many are still using 98 and 2000 (some poor souls even still use ME).

So, for them, what's the TCO? That's a tough metric to give, and it entirely depends on the user and their application, and anyone who pretends there's a nice cut-and-dry number that proves one OS is better than other is serving an agenda.


Edit: See Eran's comment, and also I changed my headline to reflect that no necklaces were involved in this particular posting, which he was kind enough to point out on his follow-up story.

Another Example of People are Idiots

Justin Long, newly famous from the "Get a Mac Ads" talks to the LA Times about being harassed by people offended by the commercials.

Link

I've finally been convinced that the new Apple commercials don't work, Apple has sustained some bad press and managed to offend a sub-set of people who have emotionally tied themselves to their choice of computers. Getting these people fired up is a bad idea, simply because they're such a vocal and apparently aggressive bunch of lunatics. Although John Devorak has been making a mint doing this to Mac users.

While bashing Microsoft during a WWDC is a perfect time to fire up the troops, these commercials aren't very effective at showing what's great about the Mac and merely gets mired in the old PC vs. Mac arguement.

However, Apple should sustain a television commercial campaign because that presence, that constant reminder that a Mac is a great choice and does really cool things, is going to sell Macs.

John Gruber Agrees...

Leander Kahney at Wired mag has completely missed the point of a World Wide Developer's Conference. Here's Gruber's well-written post about what Kahney, and a surprising number of other people, missed at last week's WWDC.

Link.

Apple and Rumors: A Less Than Perfect Relationship

Apple loves hype, or more specifically, Steve Jobs loves hype. He feeds on it, uses it, and mostly controls the hype that flows around Apple Computer.

But, sometimes the hype bites back. For weeks rumors fly and there are whispers of astounding products, amazing products. Even Scoble, noted blogger and Microsoft enthusiast, gets caught in it, leaving less than cryptic hints in an entry about Vista.
The rumors create a wave of feeling, a rising white-tipped wave that no product could ever hope to absorb. Minutes before Jobs' keynote on Monday, the IRC channels ready, MacRumors pushing posts directly from the floor, there was a feeling that Apple was about to announce "The Coolest Thing Ever."

And, then Jobs' ruined it by being the CEO of an outstanding company and announcing the new Mac Pro and previewing Leopard. Rather than being a superhero, Jobs was merely mortal, and Apple merely a computer company. And, there was the collective yawn.

Leander Kahney asked "Has Steve Jobs Lost His Magic" and wondered if Jobs' health was declining. And Scoble offering his mea culpa noted that Apple's announcment went "over like a lead balloon."

But, what was really expected? An iPhone? A new iPod? At a Developers conference? Really.

And, here it is, we get to see a glimpse of Leopard and rather than focusing on the maybe and on the cool things we did see, lots of people assume that its. And then we get into geek wankery about whether Apple was being mean to Microsoft because of some sharp pokes at Goliath, which is quickly followed by the official Who Copied Who Game. By the way, Paul Thurrott isn't the most unbiased source for Apple vs. Microsoft discussions considering he runs the Windows Super Site. And, he should know this discussion goes back to the beginning and coould include Xerox PARC. Yes, the discussion is that freaking geeky and irrelevant.

Apple did what they should have done at this year's WWDC, they showed the attendees some of the things Leopard could do, including very cool technologies like Core Animation, not to mention the full porting of the OS to 64-bit and the transition from PPC to Intel in 210 days.

While Microsoft's been screwing around with Longwait, sorry Vista, Apple has managed to radically change their OS's architecture to work on 64-bit Intel chips, while managing hurdles with Rosetta and Universal Binaries. And, they deserve praise for that not the collective yawn of a buch of jaded rumor-mongers.

The cool hardware and a new iPod are coming. Just not today.

On Predictions

Well, I was hit and miss, just like everyone else. Even Robert Scoble has been forced to offer a mea culpa after his post that mind-blowing things were about to come out. Either Scoble's source was dead wrong, or as my sources tell me, Jobs didn't want to blow the load at once.

This makes a certain amount of sense, the WWDC is about Developers and thus focused on Leopard and the Mac Pro, which looks like an awesome machine and I'd buy one if I didn't think my Visa card would burst into flames.

Rootkits and Wireless Vulnerabilities, Oh My!

A friend of mine recently sent me this email which includes a description of the wireless 'vulnerability' from the Washington Post.

" I just read an article in the morning paper about how easy it is to hack into any computer (including a Mac or mac book) of people who are using wireless connections at airports, restaurants, libraries etc. They drop something called a root kit into the computer by exploiting the wireless card - the root kit is an undetectable program that logs passwords and accesses sensitive files. The demonstration showed that they can quickly hack into the laptops of people with the wireless cards in their computers who are using their computers in public places even when they are not logged onto the wireless system or online."

This is why the headline was so damaging and so dangerous. From this description all the nuances of the vulnerability have fallen away and we remain with the words rootkit and the idea that anyone can send a rootkit into any system, anywhere. If people like me then point out the subtleties of this particular problem it makes the Washington Post article seem false and overblown. Do this enough times and people will start ignoring the message just as they now seem to ignore articles about viruses and malware.
The Washington Post blog headline was irresponsible.

Quick Prediction on Apple's WWDC

The WWDC keynote is about 10 hours away, but I just wanted to write down my predictions, so I can point back to it on Tuesday and say: Wow, I'm clueless. 

Mac Pro. Totally, the new Intel chips are exactly what the G5 replacement needs, and this puts pressure on Adobe to finish their Pro App. It also simplifies the Apple line to all Intel. 

Leopard. I'm forced to agree with John Gruber over at Daring Fireball, the Finder is going to undergo some major changes. Spotlight will be updated, and I'd expect a lot more iChat integration due to the increasing ubiquity of iSight cameras in the iMac, MacBook lines. 

And, Windows will not be integrated into Leopard, but Apple will be happy to sell copies of Parallels. 

iPod Video. Not today, but soon. Maybe during Paris, but I'd expect a special event in August. iPod Nanos are also due for a change, which explains the Educational Discount that includes a Free iPod Nano coupon. 

iPhone, iHome, iTablet. All would be excellent products and would sell like hotcakes, to use a well-worn phrase, but not for WWDC. 
Of the three, the iHome (a Mac DVR) is most likely, but Jobs would totally change the phone industry with an iPhone. And Jobs likes changing the world. 

More on Wireless Flaw

On a follow up to yesterday's post, John Gruber at Daring Fireball makes a similar case. The problem is the Washington Post's story, the presentation, and the failure of the writer to ask specific questions about what this vulnerability means.

Sensational Headlines: or Why Apple Never Made a Yellow iMac...

Headlines are misleading. They're created as trailers for news stories, trying to give you the explosions and the broad dialogue to hook you and get you to read the story. This is an old story, and yet I'm occasionally surprised at just how far this goes. Technology stories are troublesome in this regard, because the story offers relies on specific details to make sense, and sometimes while writing a fantastic headline someone goes too far and changes the meaning of a story.

This happened with the Washington Post's story on a demonstration of wireless-card driver flaws. The headline is "Hijacking a Macbook in 60 Seconds or Less." Now the headline is descriptive in this part, because the researchers did use a Dell laptop to hijack a Macbook. However, this headline is also misleading because it uses the Macbook as the focus. The problem isn't the Macbook, it's the driver implementation of a third-party wireless card and this problem exists for Windows as well.

Although the story buries this fact deep into the story, the security researcher points it out immediately upon presenting the target Macbook. Of course, the blogosphere goes nuts with opprobrium and vitriol against Apple and 'smug' Mac users which seems like a particularly bizarre reaction, until you remember earlier reactions to Apple's new commercials.

This is a security flaw, and make no mistake about it, Apple needs to create a fix, but let's be clear: you can hack any wireless computer using this flaw. Furthermore, wireless networks are inherently insecure. There's too many ways to attack the network including sniffing the traffic and attaining passwords, creating false networks, and simple brute force attacks. This is just another problematic vector in an insecure system. But, this isn't an Apple problem and the word Macbook was in the headline to drive traffic.

A Fresh Start: A history of my writing, bad latin, and bad poetry.

Why bad latin? I actually spent a summer in a Latin intensive and I learned just enough to be utterly confused by Italian and to frequently garble legal terms into hopeless mishmash. And, please note, this happened in spite of the university's best attempts to teach me.

Why bad poetry? Sometimes I'm going to submit you poor unfortunates to some of my poetry and I felt it best to lower your expectations. If you feel the occasional bit of poetry is so fantastic you'd like to read an entire book of it, then let me know. If you feel the occasional bit of poetry is hopelessly childish and gauche, I warned you.

This blog is about me and my frequent obsessions, thoughts, and general rambling. I hold my opinions in low esteem simply because I'm a 29-year-old American with just enough education to be dangerous.

I believe in a few things: the power of literature, good design, the progress of technology—despite the numerous blowbacks and unintended consequence—and smart people who try do good in the world.

Hope you enjoy this blog, another grain of sand in the blogosphere, and hope it find you well and interests you, if only for a moment.